Baby Boomers have been a big target in the housing market but the future will see a shift in who the future housing market will capture. According to Morgan Stanley, Millennials and Gen Z will slowly take over.
In 2019, it is reported that Millenials (those born between 1981 and 1996) will become the largest generation in the nation. If all follows as planned, Gen Z (those born between 1997 and 2012) will take over in 2034. What does these mean for the housing market? This “youth boom” which is the merging of these two generations will heighten the economy and encourage a drive for demand in housing.
“We’re going to see strong demand for housing, both multifamily and single family, over the medium to long term,“ says Richard Hill, who leads Morgan Stanley’s U.S. REIT Equity and Commercial Real Estate Debt research teams.
We can already see the effects in the housing market in many U.S. regions. Areas report bidding wars as the Millennials a forming households. Home prices across the country continue to rise due to the lack in inventory. There are a reported 22 million people between the ages of 20 and 24 across the United States that will be adding 3.6 million new households within the next five years.
“Our findings show that household formation will increase 1.7 times annually over the next five years, compared with the prior eight years,” says James Egan, a strategist on the firm’s Securitized Products Strategy team.
The areas with the change in the trend market are definitely effected in different ways. The West and Southwest are seeing a rapid change because the Millenials outnumber the Baby Boomers. This is the exact opposite for New England and the Rust Belt which have the least Millenial population.
With a new generation comes a new way of buying, iBuyers. An iBuyer is a company that uses a web-based questionnaire and home-value algorithms to purchase homes. Basically they use technology to make an offer on your home instantly. iBuyers will account for 3% of the U.S. existing home sales by 2030.
“3% might seem small in percentage terms,” says Brian Nowak, Head of U.S. Internet Research, “But given the large size of the residential market, which is around six million transactions a year and $1.8 trillion in transaction value, it means iBuyers would purchase roughly 175,000 homes in 2030.”
The U.S. housing market will see a massive change in both target market and purchasing tools within the next decade. This is great news for both single-family homes and multi-family homes.
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