markets

Pittsburgh and New Orleans Among Those Included

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released its first NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI), a new economic index revealing metropolitan areas that have shown improvement for at least six months in three key economic areas—housing permits, employment and housing prices.

The list of metropolitan areas includes:

• Alexandria, LA
• Anchorage, AK
• Bangor, ME
• Bismarck, ND
• Casper, WY
• Fairbanks, AK
• Fayetteville, NC
• Houma, LA
• Midland, TX
• New Orleans, LA
• Pittsburgh, PA
• Waco, TX

“Despite the challenging conditions in the national economy and housing sector, there are areas throughout the country where we are seeing pockets of improvement” said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. “Housing conditions are local, and do not always reflect the national picture. We created this new index to shine a light on those housing markets across the country that have stabilized and have begun to show signs of recovery.”

“By examining key indicators of home prices, employment and housing permits data, we are using a comprehensive, but conservative method in determining which markets are improving,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Last year at this time, there was not a single market that showed improvement using these criteria, and now we can point to 12 examples of growth.”

“It’s not surprising that many of the states represented are energy rich areas,” Crowe continued. “Those are the regions still experiencing relatively strong employment, supporting housing demand.”

The IMI is designed to track housing markets throughout the country that are showing signs of improving economic health. The index measures three sets of independent monthly data to get a mark on the top improving Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The three indicators that are analyzed are employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation from Freddie Mac, and single-family housing permit growth from the U.S. Census Bureau. A metro area must see improvement in all three areas for at least six months following their respective troughs before being included on the improving markets list. NAHB uses the latest available data from these sources to generate the list of improving markets.

Please visit www.nahb.org/imi for additional data, tables and a list of 2011 future economic release dates.


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       Homeowners in the Washington area can uncross their fingers -- 2011 is expected to be the best year for home prices the region has witnessed since the recession, with experts saying the area's market recovery will be tops in the nation.

       The region's relatively strong uptick in prices over the last year -- second in the nation -- gives analysts reason to believe the Washington market could see a 6.5 percent increase in home prices over the next 12 months, according to a new report by Clear Capital, which tracks real estate trends. It's the biggest increase the firm is predicting across the country.

       "D.C. prices are already going up for all homeowners who have purchased a home in last two years," said Alex Villacorta, senior statistician at Clear Capital. "So they are likely to see positive equity in that purchase."

       It's a different story, however, for those who bought a home at the height of the housing boom in the summer of 2006. The area's home prices on average are back to their 2004 levels, while houses in the rest of the nation are averaging prices closer to 2001 levels.

Annual price changes for 2011's top markets

       Strong employment and the relatively low percentage of bank-owned foreclosures on the market are two big factors that have contributed to the Washington area's ability to stay ahead of the curve, experts said. Roughly 15 percent of properties on the market in the region are bank-owned compared with more than 40 percent in other major markets, according to Clear Capital. Unemployment is a little more than half the national average of 9.8 percent.

       That helped propel Washington-area home prices in 2010 to a 5.3 percent increase, second only to Honolulu, where prices increased by 7.2 percent, according to the report.

       Meanwhile neighboring markets suffered significant declines. Prices in Richmond fell last year by more than 10 percent and Baltimore-area prices fell by more than 8 percent. Clear Capital expects both markets to see losses again this year.

       Nationally, prices fell by 4.1 percent in 2010. Much of it was because of the false boost the federal homebuyer tax credits gave the market during the first half of the year, which created a highly volatile atmosphere.

       "They probably did as much harm as they did good because the dramatic falloff of purchases ... seems to have had the effect of further depressing prices," Rick Sharga, executive vice president of foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, said last month.

       Real estate agents say it's a relief to hear the positive prediction for Washington -- but it's not surprising.

       "The average length of time a property stayed on the market once we got through the tax credit [has been] declining," said Joanne Darling, president of the Prince George's County Association of Realtors. "Properties are actually staying on market less than 90 days ... [whereas] at its worst, it was longer than six months."

       But location is key and real estate is highly local. Darling said she's seeing multiple offers on homes in places like Capitol Hill, Northwest D.C., Bethesda and Chevy Chase. But towns farther away from the city -- and where residents have to be more reliant on cars -- have been slow to come back, she said.

       The market volatility in 2010 created a shift toward rental properties, with potential buyers in the region being afraid to invest in a home that might continue to drop in value. But Villacorta said 2011 may see a shift back toward homeownership.

       "As rents start to increase, that could provide an opportunity for investors to come in and ... rent those properties back," he said. "That would drive prices up and that can swing the tide back into the favor of 'maybe it's a good time to buy.'"


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       Data from the University of New Orleans shows home sales in the five-parish North Shore region climbed slightly in the first nine months of 2010. The numbers indicate a slight nudge for the market that saw a slowdown in activity during the height of the national economic collapse.

       UNO’s Institute for Economic Development Director Ivan Miestchovich said the trends through the first three quarters of 2010 signal upward momentum in the single family housing market and a slowdown in the rate at which home prices in the region are falling.

       Between January and September, 3,019 single family units were sold in the North Shore region compared with 2,845 in the same span of 2009. Average prices fell just less than 3.5 percent, or from $200,426 in 2009 to $193,435 last year.

       The report also provides an overview of economic trends along the Interstate 12 corridor, which includes St. Tammany, Tangipahoa, Livingston, Washington and St. Helena parishes.

       The region lost 3,430 jobs, or 2.3 percent, between the first quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010. Tangipahoa Parish accounted for the largest share with 1,395 jobs, followed by St. Tammany with 1,170 jobs.

       Those job sectors with the largest jobs losses were construction (1,051) retail (997) and manufacturing (986).

       During the same time frame, industries adding jobs on the North Shore were health care and social assistance (594) and professional, scientific and technical services (154).

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       Here’s a contrarian view for you.  Credit Suisse says the fears about housing are well overdone.  In their analysis they cite 6 different bullish factors that should help to bolster house prices in the USA:

• The government now owns or guarantees about 70% of US mortgage debt ($11.5trn), thus any knock-on impact from a fall in house prices should be much lower than in 2007-2008 and the flow of foreclosure onto the market can be managed well (recall that since April 2009, 3.1 million trial loan modifications have been made).
• Valuation is extremely cheap on all measures (price to income, price to rent, affordability index, rental yields).
• Delinquency ratios, charge-off and foreclosure rates seem to have peaked.
• Housing starts are about 1m below trend demand of housing units – based on household formation and replacement demand. The question is: What is the level of excess inventory? The number of unsold new and existing homes have fallen by 63% and 14% from the peak, respectively; if we then assume half the foreclosed property becomes vacant (i.e. half of the 2.3m homes currently foreclosed), this amounts to 2.7m homes, which should take 2 ½ to 3 years to absorb.
• Distressed sales (short-sales, foreclosures and REO sales) are less than a third of the total, after peaking at almost half in 2009.
• Housing as a proportion of GDP is now just 2.2%, compared with a long-run average of 4.5%.

Click Here for the Source of the Information.

Enough with the doom and gloom about homeownership.

      Sure, maybe there's more pain to come in the housing market. But when Time magazine starts running covers that declare "Owning a home may no longer make economic sense," it's time to say: Enough is enough. This is what "capitulation" looks like. Everyone has given up.

       After all, at the peak of the bubble five years ago, Time had a different take. "Home Sweet Home," declared its cover then, as it celebrated the boom and asked: "Will your house make you rich?"

But it's not enough just to be contrarian. So here are 10 reasons why it's good to buy a home.

1. 1. You can get a good deal. Especially if you play hardball. This is a buyer's market. Most of the other buyers have now vanished, as the tax credits on purchases have just expired. We're four to five years into the biggest housing bust in modern history. And prices have come down a long way– about 30% from their peak, according to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index, which tracks home prices in 20 big cities. Yes, it's mixed. New York is only down 20%. Arizona has halved. Will prices fall further? Sure, they could. You'll never catch the bottom. It doesn't really matter so much in the long haul.
2. Where is fair value? Fund manager Jeremy Grantham at GMO, who predicted the bust with remarkable accuracy, said two years ago that home prices needed to fall another 17% to reach fair value in relation to household incomes. Case-Shiller since then: Down 18%.
3. 
   
4. 2. Mortgages are cheap. You can get a 30-year loan for around 4.3%. What's not to like? These are the lowest rates on record. As recently as two years ago they were about 6.3%. That drop slashes your monthly repayment by a fifth. If inflation picks up, you won't see these mortgage rates again in your lifetime. And if we get deflation, and rates fall further, you can refi.
5. 
   
6. 3. You'll save on taxes. You can deduct the mortgage interest from your income taxes. You can deduct your real estate taxes. And you'll get a tax break on capital gains–if any–when you sell. Sure, you'll need to do your math. You'll only get the income tax break if you itemize your deductions, and many people may be better off taking the standard deduction instead. The breaks are more valuable the more you earn, and the bigger your mortgage. But many people will find that these tax breaks mean owning costs them less, often a lot less, than renting.
7. 
   
8. 4. It'll be yours. You can have the kitchen and bathrooms you want. You can move the walls, build an extension–zoning permitted–or paint everything bright orange. Few landlords are so indulgent; for renters, these types of changes are often impossible. You'll feel better about your own place if you own it than if you rent. Many years ago, when I was working for a political campaign in England, I toured a working-class northern town. Mrs. Thatcher had just begun selling off public housing to the tenants. "You can tell the ones that have been bought," said my local guide. "They've painted the front door. It's the first thing people do when they buy." It was a small sign that said something big.
9. 
   
10. 5. You'll get a better home. In many parts of the country it can be really hard to find a good rental. All the best places are sold as condos. Money talks. Once again, this is a case by case issue: In Miami right now there are so many vacant luxury condos that owners will rent them out for a fraction of the cost of owning. But few places are so favored. Generally speaking, if you want the best home in the best neighborhood, you're better off buying.
11. 
    
12. 6. It offers some inflation protection. No, it's not perfect. But studies by Professor Karl "Chip" Case (of Case-Shiller), and others, suggest that over the long-term housing has tended to beat inflation by a couple of percentage points a year. That's valuable inflation insurance, especially if you're young and raising a family and thinking about the next 30 or 40 years. In the recent past, inflation-protected government bonds, or TIPS, offered an easier form of inflation insurance. But yields there have plummeted of late. That also makes homeownership look a little better by contrast.
13. 
    
14. 7. It's risk capital. No, your home isn't the stock market and you shouldn't view it as the way to get rich. But if the economy does surprise us all and start booming, sooner or later real estate prices will head up again, too. One lesson from the last few years is that stocks are incredibly hard for most normal people to own in large quantities–for practical as well as psychological reasons. Equity in a home is another way of linking part of your portfolio to the long-term growth of the economy–if it happens–and still managing to sleep at night.
15. 
    
16. 8. It's forced savings. If you can rent an apartment for $2,000 month instead of buying one for $2,400 a month, renting may make sense. But will you save that $400 for your future? A lot of people won't. Most, I dare say. Once again, you have to do your math, but the part of your mortgage payment that goes to principal repayment isn't a cost. You're just paying yourself by building equity. As a forced monthly saving, it's a good discipline.
17. 
    
18. 9. There is a lot to choose from. There is a glut of homes in most of the country. The National Association of Realtors puts the current inventory at around 4 million homes. That's below last year's peak, but well above typical levels, and enough for about a year's worth of sales. More keeping coming onto the market, too, as the banks slowly unload their inventory of unsold properties. That means great choice, as well as great prices.
19. 
    
20. 10. Sooner or later, the market will clear. Demand and supply will meet. The population is forecast to grow by more than 100 million people over the next 40 years. That means maybe 40 million new households looking for homes. Meanwhile, this housing glut will work itself out. Many of the homes will be bought. But many more will simply be destroyed–either deliberately, or by inaction. This is already happening. Even two years ago, when I toured the housing slump in western Florida, I saw bankrupt condo developments that were fast becoming derelict. And, finally, a lot of the "glut" simply won't matter: It's concentrated in a few areas, like Florida and Nevada. Unless you live there, the glut won't have any long-term impact on housing supply in your town.

       Housing has turned the corner of the worst downturn in more than 60 years, but the market is still grappling with high unemployment and sharply lower home prices, according to “The State of the Nation’s Housing 2010,” which was released by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University on June 14.

       “The strength of job growth is now key to how quickly loan distress subsides and how fully markets recover,” the report says.

       “If history is a guide, what happens with jobs will matter the most to the strength of the housing rebound,” says Eric Belsky, executive director of the Joint Center. “Right now, economists expect the unemployment rate to stay high, but if employment growth surprises on the upside or downside, housing numbers could too.”

       First-time home buyers drove the improvements that began to be seen by the middle of last year, triggered by improved affordability and the first-time home buyer tax credit, and they were responsible for all of the gains in existing home sales in 2009, the study says.

       “As a result of lower home prices and interest rates, mortgage payments on a median-priced home (assuming a 90% loan-to-value ratio) dropped below 20% of median household income — the lowest level on record dating back to 1971,” according to the center.

       The report notes that in April there were 7.8 million fewer jobs than in December 2007, and “unfortunately, most economists predict that the unemployment rate will remain elevated as discouraged workers reenter the labor force amid slow gains in jobs.”

       The overhang of vacant units for rent, for sale or held off the market is another “serious concern,” the report says.
 
       “Despite production cuts of more than 70% since 2005, the overall vacancy rate hit a record in 2009. In addition, many current owners are effectively trapped in homes that are worth less than the amount owed on their mortgages. If these distressed owners want or need to sell, their only choices are to walk away from their homes or write a check at the closing table. This will inhibit a recovery in repeat home sales.”

       Citing statistics from First American CoreLogic, the center says that falling home prices left 11.2 million home owners underwater on their loans — with no home equity and unable to tap traditional markets — as of the end of the first quarter of 2010. Housing was adding significantly less to the pocketbooks of consumers, as well, with Freddie Mac reporting that total real home equity cashed out at refinancing dropped 25% in 2009 and stood below $80 billion for the first time since 2000.

       The housing market will also have to weather the expiration of the home buyer tax credit, but the report suggests that the improving labor market may enable housing to avoid a dip similar to what occurred when the first round of credits expired in the fall of 2009.

Declining Incomes and Wealth

       At the outset of the recovery, home builders are also having to contend with a noticeable decline in the income and household wealth of their prospective buyers.

       “After at least three decades of progress, real median household income will almost certainly end the 2000s lower than they started,” the study says. “At last measure, the median for all households was $49,800 in 2008, down from $52,400 in 2000. Even at their last cyclical peak in 2007, real median incomes were 1.2% below 2000 levels.”

       The household wealth of households slid from $503,500 to $486,600 over the decade, according to Harvard.

       “While growth in stock wealth has already started to pick up, housing wealth will take a slower path to recovery. Indeed, despite some painful foreclosure-driven deleveraging, mortgage debt has never been higher relative to home equity. After an $8.2 trillion plunge in housing wealth since the end of 2005, mortgage debt entered 2010 at 163% of home equity.”

       Even outside the cyclical decline in income and wealth, the financial wherewithal of prospective buyers will be a concern for the housing market in the period ahead as it becomes increasingly diverse.

       “At last measure in 2007, minorities accounted for fully 35% of first-time home buyers and 20% of repeat buyers even in the middle of the housing bust. The immigrant share of first-time buyers was 19% and of repeat buyers 12%.”

       The report says that “minority households have lower median incomes than white households. For example, the median income for 35-44 year-old minority-headed households was $45,000 in 2008, compared with $72,900 for whites.”

The Return of Household Growth

       The most optimistic news from this year’s report comes from a longer-range assessment of household growth.

       While there has been much discussion of the impact of the recession on household growth, “it is difficult to judge how big those effects have actually been,” according to the center. The cumulative slowdown over the past four years appears to range from 1.0 million to 2.8 million.

       “The reality could, however, be even worse because household growth estimates depend heavily on net immigration, which is particularly difficult to assess in and around an economic recession.”

       The report observes that it is also hard to sort out how much of the slowdown in household formations has been due to reduced immigration and how much to lower household formation rates caused by doubling up.

       The Current Population Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau shows foreign-born households under the age of 35 declining by 338,400 from March 2007 to March 2009, compared to a drop of only 2,100 native-born households of the same age.

       “On the other hand, the survey also indicates that headship rates among young adults as a whole declined in the late 2000s, consistent with the expected effects of soaring unemployment within that age group. At the same time, the survey also shows some drop-off in headship rates in older age groups,” the report says.

       “In any case, headship rates may not remain depressed for long given dramatic improvements in affordability for first-time buyers who have jobs, softening rents due to high rental vacancies and the expectation that household growth will return to long-term trend levels when employment growth quickens.

       “But assuming headship rates remain at their slightly lower 2008 levels and that net immigration recovers to its 2000-2005 pace, household growth will average about 1.48 million annually in 2010 to 2020. Even if immigration falls to half the Census Bureau’s currently projected rate, household growth will still average about 1.25 million annually.

       “This low-end estimate puts household growth in the next 10 years on par with the pace in 1995 to 2005, and should support average annual housing completions and manufactured home placements of well over 1.7 million units. The higher-end estimate would likely support production exceeding 1.9 million units per year on average over the coming decade.”

       The study also indicates that builders should be on the lookout for retiring baby boomers, the oldest of whom are just turning 64, with millions soon to follow.

       “Despite their losses in wealth caused by the correction in home and stock prices, the baby boomers will drive demand for senior housing suited to active lifestyles as well as for assisted living facilities,” the report says.

      NAHB and the National Housing Endowment were among the organizations providing funding for the report.

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       As Congress begins to debate how to reform government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Bank System, NAHB on April 14 called on lawmakers to ensure that the federal government continues to provide a backstop for the housing finance system to ensure a reliable and adequate flow of affordable housing credit.

       Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, NAHB Third Vice Chairman Rick Judson, a builder and developer from Charlotte, N.C., said the need for this support is underscored by the current state of affairs — with the GSEs, Federal Housing Administration and Ginnie Mae acting as the primary conduits for residential mortgage credit.

       “NAHB feels the federal backstop must be a permanent fixture in order to ensure a consistent supply of mortgage liquidity as well as to allow rapid and effective responses to market dislocations and crises,” said Judson.

       Related to the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, NAHB recommended policy changes to restore and improve the secondary mortgage market and housing finance system:

• Degree and structure of government support. While government support is needed to ensure that mortgage credit is available and affordable in all areas of the country under all economic circumstances, support for the conforming conventional mortgage market should not be provided directly to private companies. Instead, the federal government should explicitly guarantee the timely payment of principal and interest on securities backed by conforming conventional mortgages, in the same way that Ginnie Mae now provides guarantees for investors in its securities.
  
• Operation of the conforming conventional mortgage market. NAHB envisions private companies — conforming mortgage conduits (CMCs) — being chartered to purchase conforming conventional loans originated by approved mortgage lending institutions such as banks, savings and loan associations, mortgage banking companies and credit unions and then issuing securities backed by those mortgages.

      CMCs would guarantee the timely payment on the mortgages that are pooled in the government-guaranteed securities and would be required to be well-capitalized and to maintain reserves at levels appropriate for their risk exposure. However, CMCs and the mortgages backing their securities would not have implicit or explicit support from the federal government. A fund would be established by the government to provide a guarantee of timely payment of principal and interest to investors in the securities. The CMCs would pay a fee to capitalize the fund, which would be designed to mitigate the federal government’s risk so that it would only be exposed in the case of a “catastrophic” occurrence.

• Conforming conventional mortgages. Mortgages eligible for inclusion in securities receiving an explicit federal guarantee should have well-understood risk characteristics. This would include fixed-rate and standard adjustable-rate mortgages and selected multifamily mortgage loans.

       NAHB is in the process of updating its policy on the future of the Federal Home Loan Bank System and believes that policymakers must take into account its significant structural and operational differences from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac when considering the future make-up of the housing finance system.

       With Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now operating under conservatorship and experiencing severe financial pressures, NAHB urged Congress to proceed with caution as lawmakers take steps to transition to a new housing finance system.

“Any changes should be undertaken with extreme care and with sufficient time to ensure that U.S. home buyers and renters are not placed in harm’s way and that the mortgage funding and delivery system operates efficiently and effectively as the old system is abandoned and a new system is put in place,” said Judson.

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