2009

       The Monroe metropolitan area will be the fastest growing in the state with 1,900 new jobs in 2010 and 1,500 in 2011, said economist Loren Scott at a luncheon for business leaders held in Baton Rouge on October 7, 2009. Scott said Investments in the Foster Farms chicken processing plant, the V-Vehicle manufacturing facility, additional employment at Gardner Denver Thomas as well as construction work have significantly brightened the Monroe area's outlook. Other highlights from his economic forecast include:

• New Orleans, the largest MSA in the state, will add only 3,000 jobs in 2010 and 2,500 in 2011. While most of the growth will be driven by construction, upcoming layoffs at Lockheed Martin Space Systems and weak tourism numbers will offset many of the construction gains in the region.

• Lake Charles will add 1,000 new jobs in 2010 with 1,700 jobs in 2011. The growth, which will make Lake Charles the second fastest-growing MSA in the state, will be driven by construction on the Sugarcane Bay Casino resort, the Shaw Group’s Global Modular Solutions, which will build nuclear power plant modules, and several other large-scale construction projects.

• Monroe will be the fastest growing MSA in the state with 1,900 new jobs in 2010 and 1,500 in 2011. Investments in the Foster Farms chicken processing plant, the V-Vehicle manufacturing facility, additional employment at Gardner Denver Thomas as well as construction work have significantly brightened the MSA’s outlook.

• Shreveport/Bossier will have split growth, adding 3,000 jobs in 2010 because of expansions at Barksdale Air Force Base, exploration if the Haynesville Shale, an injection of highway funds and construction at the SWEPCO power plant. However, the GM Shreveport plant is set to close by 2012, leaving the MSA to grow by only 1,200 jobs in 2011.

• The Lafayette MSA will have 700 new jobs in 2010 and 1,000 in 2011 -- a much weaker forecast that assumes a proposed federal tax on the oil and gas extraction industry passes.

• That potential tax will also chill employment numbers in the Houma MSA, which is forecast to add 900 new jobs in 2010 and 800 in 2011. The shipbuilding sector and a boost from construction will help offset the impact.

• Alexandria will add 600 new jobs in 2010 and 600 in 2011. There are few sources of new growth in this MSA, although it gets a boost from construction spending at Fort Polk as well as $208.4 million in planned state road projects.

       The following is excerpted from a presentation to the Home Builders Association of Greater Peoria, Ill., earlier this year on the economic benefits of the remodeling industry.

       Just like new construction, remodeling injects a tremendous amount of money into the local economy.

       Whether you build a $300,000 house or do a $300,000 remodeling job, both put money into the hands of local tradesmen, in the form of wages; local suppliers, in the form of purchases; and local governments, in the form of permits and sales taxes.

       And, once in the economy, that money creates a ripple as it passes from person to person.

       For example, a tradesman may spend part of his paycheck at a local restaurant. The waitress may then spend some of her salary and tips to get her car fixed and the mechanic who installs her new brake pads and rotors may spend part of his income going to a chiropractor. While these transactions may be small, together they add up.

       On average, every $100 million spent on additions and alterations creates 690 full time jobs — 480 construction jobs, 110 wholesale and retail trade jobs and 70 jobs in business and professional services like accounting — plus $36.7 million of local income and $3.2 million in local taxes.

       Then there’s the all important ripple effect. Remember, the ripple occurs because the local economy has increased by almost $40 million in taxes and local income ($36.7 million in local income and $3.2 million in local taxes) because of the additions and alterations that were performed.

       Once earned, this nearly $40 million gets spent, much of it in the local economy. And, in the process, this creates another 320 jobs — 70 in the wholesale and retail trade; 60 in local government; 30 in restaurants, bars and other eating establishments; 30 in healthcare, education and social services; and many other jobs in other sectors — not to mention $1.7 million more in taxes and another $17.5 million of local income.

       Combined, the direct and ripple phases from additions and alterations result in 1,010 jobs, $4.9 million in local taxes and $54.2 million in local income.

       Thought of another way, every 10 jobs created building additions and making alterations leads to almost five more jobs through remodeling’s ripple phase — and every $10 of tax revenue generated initially creates another $5.40 due to the ripple.

       Moreover, for every $10 of local income generated during the remodeling phase, $4.80 in additional local income is created courtesy of its ripple. In short, no matter how you look at it, the ripple phase is about half as big as the initial additions and alterations phase.

       Lastly, while additions and alterations always result in a temporary boost to the local economy, there is likely to be a permanent boost, too. If the additions and alterations result in a permanent addition to the structure, then its taxable value rises and the flow of property taxes to all local governments rises.

Elliot Eisenberg is a senior economist at NAHB. For more information, e-mail Eisenberg, or call him at 800-368-5242 x8398.




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With homebuyers rushing to complete their purchases before a tax credit for first-time owners expires, a report Friday is expected to show strong September sales

       Home resales are expected to show an almost 5 percent increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million, up from 5.1 million in August, according to economists polled by Thomson Reuters. If the report meets forecasts it would be the best month for home sales in more than two years.


Michael Conroy / AP Photo A "sold" sign is shown in front of a home in Carmel, Ind.

       The National Association of Realtors' report is scheduled for 10 a.m. EDT.

       The sales jump, however, could be far larger than Wall Street expects, according to a monthly survey of 1,500 real estate agents for Campbell Communications, a research firm. That's because foreclosure sales are booming in cities like Los Angeles, San Diego and Las Vegas.

       "There's a mini-boom going on in the housing market," said Thomas Popik, who conducted the survey for Campbell and expects a double-digit increase.

       First-time homebuyers and investors are snapping up those homes and taking advantage of low mortgage rates. These buyers can also take advantage of a tax credit of 10 percent of the sales price, up to $8,000, if the deal is completed by the end of November.

       The tax credit is so important to some buyers that they are adding a clause to their contracts, allowing them to back out if the sale doesn't close by Nov. 30.

       While home sales and housing construction have risen steadily after hitting bottom earlier this year, most economists believe that the worst isn't over for home values. In August, the median price was $177,700, down from the peak of $230,300 in July 2006, but still above the bottom of $164,800 in January, according to the Realtors group.

       Prices could see a double dip because rising unemployment is having a ripple effect on foreclosures. The jobless rate, currently at 9.8 percent is expected to rise as high as 10.5 percent next year, causing more people to be unable to afford their monthly mortgage payment.

       "There's more supply that's going to come into the marketplace," said Stan Humphries, chief economist at real estate Web site Zillow.com. "That additional supply will outpace demand."

       Some signs of softer prices may already be appearing. A government index released Thursday showed U.S. home prices dipped 0.3 percent from July to August.

       That drop "supports our view that the housing recovery will be slow and bumpy," wrote Paul Dales, U.S. economist with Capital Economics.

       With concerns about the housing market still prominent, Congress is considering several proposals to extend the tax credit for first-time buyers. Senators Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., and Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., want to extend it through June 30, and expand it to include all home buyers, at an estimated cost of $16.7 billion.

       One potential roadblock, however, emerged this week. There are concerns that some of the 1.5 million applications for the tax credit are fraudulent.

       At a hearing before a House subcommittee Thursday, J. Russell George, the Treasury Department's inspector general for taxes, questioned the legitimacy of some 100,000 claims for the credit, potentially including some illegal immigrants and 580 people under 18. The youngest taxpayers to apply for the credit were 4 years old, his office said.

       While the program has widespread support in Congress, there are growing concerns about the costs. The cause, said Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., "is a worthy one." But "I hope we can find ways to pay for it."
 
 
 
 
Associated Press Writer Alan Zibel wrote this report. Writer Jim Abrams contributed.
 
 
 
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       Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose one point in August to its highest level in more than a year, according to the latest reading of the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which was released on Aug. 17. Building on a two-point gain in July, the HMI reached 18 this month, its highest point since June of 2008.

       “Home builder expectations have been buoyed by the success of the first-time home buyer tax credit and its anticipated boost to buying activity leading up to the Nov. 30 expiration date,” said NAHB Chairman Joe Robson. “The question is what happens after that — whether there will be enough momentum to keep us moving toward a recovery, particularly in light of significant headwinds such as the severe credit crunch for housing production loans and inappropriate appraisal practices that are scuttling a quarter of all new-home sales. Unless Congress and the Administration focus their attention on housing right now, this improvement may well be short-lived,” he said.

       “One very positive aspect of today’s report is the big gain registered in the component gauging home builders’ expectations for the next six months,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “This reflects anticipated sales stemming from the tax credit as well as recent signs that an economic recovery has begun. There is definitely a sense of hope among builders that the worst of the downturn is over and that a turning point is near at hand. Meaningful action by Congress could ensure that this upward momentum continues and that housing can help push the economy back onto solid ground.”

       NAHB is calling on Congress to extend the first-time home buyer tax credit for another year and to offer it to all income-eligible buyers. In addition, NAHB is urging Congress to help eliminate the credit crunch, correct faulty appraisal practices and expand Net Operating Loss tax provisions that can help avoid more layoffs. Each of these actions would generate thousands of new jobs and provide a much-needed boost to economic recovery.

       Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales, sales expectations for the next six months and the traffic of prospective buyers. Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

       Two out of three of the HMI’s component indexes recorded substantial gains in August. The biggest boost, of four points, was for sales expectations in the next six months, which rose to 30. The index gauging traffic of prospective buyers climbed three points to 16 and the index on current sales conditions held unchanged at 16.

       Regionally, all but the South recorded HMI gains in August. The index rose eight points to 24 in the Northeast, two points to 16 in the Midwest and three points to 17 in the West. The South posted a one-point decline to 18.

       New official state projections indicate the populations of Livingston, Ascension and St. Tammany parishes are expected to more than double by 2030. But here's the most startling prediction: In just 20 years, St. Tammany may have more residents than East Baton Rouge. If projections bear true, St. Tammany could be home to 459,160 people - up from 219,870 in the year before Katrina.Livingston's population is projected to climb to 242,780 - up from 109,030. And Ascension could expect 196,140 residents - up from 90,450 before the storms. Moderate growth over the next 20 years is projected for Lafayette Parish - about 25,000 people.

       Meanwhile, the population of East Baton Rouge Parish is projected to reach a high of 433,700 in 2010 before losing 12,200 people by 2030. Population is also expected to decline somewhat in Calcasieu.

       Dr. Troy Blanchard, an associate professor of sociology at LSU who produced the projections, says the numbers are based on birth, death and migration trends in those parishes from 2000 to 2005, using the 2000 Census and 2005 Census estimates. However, he cautions that when looking at projections this far out, birth and death rates typically remain fairly constant, while migration patterns - which can be influenced by everything from hurricanes to the economy - are unpredictable and could significantly alter the numbers.

       "What we're saying is that if these measurements stay exactly the same as they were during that particular period, this is what will happen," Blanchard says. "Right now, our best guess at what will happen in the future is what has happened in the past." The state projections indicate that from 2005 to 2010, Ascension, Livingston, St. Tammany, Tangipahoa and St. John the Baptist will emerge as the fastest-growing parishes. Between 2010 and 2020, Livingston, St. Tammany, Ascension, St. John the Baptist and Plaquemines likely will enjoy the highest growth.

       State demographer Karen Paterson says the projections are used by state agencies to plan things like new programs, transportation and schools. Businesses also consider them in selecting optimum locations.

Listed below are some websites containing additional resource information for homebuyers in the Northshore region:

St. Tammany Economic Development Foundation

Tangipahoa Economic Development Foundation

Washington Parish Economic Development Foundation

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       As a long-term investment, homeownership is still one of the best investments for individual households. “Why” you may ask? After all, the headlines say the housing market is down and out, with defaults rising at an alarming rate, and mortgage markets so frozen that buyers can’t get a home loan at any price.

       What buyers need to realize is that housing markets, like all markets, inevitably have their ups and downs. And homeownership has a track record that is virtually unmatched by any other purchase in terms of its real benefits.

       Despite the turmoil in mortgage lending, if you have good credit, a job and steady income, you will find there is still plenty of mortgage credit to be had at good rates. For well-qualified buyers, rates are running at near historical lows.

Homeownership’s Real Value

       Here are a few examples of why, dollar for dollar, homeownership is a solid stepping stone to a future of financial security and the single largest creator of wealth for many Americans. Over the long-term real estate has consistently appreciated, even through periodic adjustments in local markets in response to economic conditions. On a national level, home appreciation has historically increased 5-6 percent annually, report economists at the National Association of Home Builders.
 

       Five percent may not seem much at first, but here’s an example that will put it into perspective: Say you put 10 percent down on a $200,000 house, for an investment of $20,000. At a 5 percent annual appreciation rate, that $200,000 home would increase in value $10,000 during the first year. Earning $10,000 on an investment of $20,000 is an extraordinary 50 percent annual return. In contrast, putting that $20,000 down payment into the stock market and getting a 5 percent gain would only yield a $1,000 profit.

Compared to Stocks

       Looking at it another way, over a longer period of time, if someone put $10,000 into the stock market in 1996, the average annual S&P return would make that investment worth $21,500 today—an increase of $11,500. The median home price in 1996 was $140,000.

Today, that same home would have gained nearly $100,000 in value. Don’t miss out on the benefits of homeownership.

       Nationwide housing starts rebounded in May from record lows in the previous month, posting a 17.2% gain to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 532,000 units, according to U.S. Commerce Department figures released on June 16.

       While driven largely by a double-digit gain in the volatile multifamily sector, the uptick also reflected a substantial gain on the single-family side and applied consistently to all regions of the country.

       “Having drawn down standing inventories to very thin levels over the past year, some home builders are now carefully replenishing their supplies in response to demand from smart buyers who are taking advantage of low interest rates and prices,” said NAHB Chairman Joe Robson.

       “The May report showing three consecutive months of gains in single-family housing starts and two consecutive months of gains in single-family permits is a very welcome sign that the market may be nearing a turning point,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

       “That said, our recent surveys tell us that builders remain very cautious about the future, and that they are aware of the upcoming expiration of the first-time buyer tax credit at the end of November,” Crowe added. “Homes that get started now should be able to close by that deadline, and this may be spurring some of the latest construction activity.”

       Single-family housing starts gained 7.5% in May, breaking the 400,000 mark for the first time since November 2008 to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 401,000 units. Meanwhile, starts in the much more volatile multifamily sector posted a 77% gain following a nearly equivalent decline in the previous month, for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 124,000 units.

       Building permit issuance, which can be an indicator of future building activity, rose 4% overall in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 518,000 units. On the single-family side, permits rose 7.9% to 408,000 units, while on the multifamily side, they declined 8.3% to 110,000 units.

       Both housing starts and permits were up across every region in May. Starts rose 2% in the Northeast, 11.1% in the Midwest, 16.8% in the South and 28.6% in the West.

       The President on June 17, 2009, announced a sweeping financial reform plan that is intended to restore confidence in the integrity of the U.S. and global financial system.

       When unveiling the proposal, the President emphasized that the proposed reforms seek to build a new foundation for financial regulation and supervision that is simpler and more effectively enforced, protect consumers and investors, reward innovation and adapt and evolve with changes in the financial market.

       The plan, which the President wants to complete this year, centers on expanding the power of the Federal Reserve to police large, systemically important institutions and on allowing the government to break firms apart, implement new rules for complex financial instruments and create a new federal agency to oversee consumer products such as mortgages and credit cards.

       The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is currently reviewing the far-ranging proposal — which would touch almost every corner of financial markets, from tougher consumer-protection policies to stricter rules over exotic financial products such as credit derivatives.

        The proposed reform also would bring many of the products and companies that previously operated outside of the banking system under federal scrutiny.

         The Administration's blueprint would give the government the power to take over and wind down a large financial company — a power that government officials lacked last year when the financial crisis was intensifying.

         The plan would also give the central bank more power over the payments and settlements systems in U.S. financial markets to prevent a breakdown that officials fear could destabilize the economy.

The plan proposes reforms to meet the following five key objectives:

    * Promote robust supervision and regulation of financial firms
    * Establish comprehensive regulation of financial markets
    * Protect consumers and investors from financial abuse
    * Provide the government with the tools it needs to manage financial crises
    * Raise international regulatory standards and improve international cooperation

       The Administration has not submitted legislative language and significant changes to such a plan will probably be made as it works its way through Congress.

        While the President would like a reform plan to be enacted this year, the congressional agenda is already full and that timing appears unlikely.

        A delay until next year should give the NAHB enough time and ample opportunities to weigh in during the debate.

       Details of the Administration’s proposal are outlined in an 80-plus page white paper. The white paper and fact sheets on the five major components of the plan are posted on the Treasury’s Web site at www.ustreas.gov/news/index1.html.

For more information, e-mail David Ledford at NAHB, or call him at 800-368-5242 x8265.

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Pricing by the square foot of a new home can be very misleading.  It could be compared to purchasing a car by the pound:  A Farrari vs. Honda 2000.  Both are sports cars and their weight is similar.  Yet, the cost per pound would be tremendously different. 

The same is true when designing and building a new custom home. Each home has different conditions:  the site and/or the amenities.  These items include fixed costs.

Fixed costs are features such as fireplaces, appliances, cabinets, light fixtures, baths, site conditions, etc. These would also be considered your interior amenities.

Examples of site conditions include:

    Utility runs – from street service to home
    Trees – more or less, large or small
    Elevation
    Length of Drive
    Location – far out in the country vs. in town

Most homes in the same price range will have the same quantity of these items.  There is usually only one kitchen per home and therefore a similar number of appliances and cabinets.  Many homes have 2 baths even though they may have 3 or 4 bedrooms.  Therefore, the cost is the same for those baths even though the square footage of the 4 bedroom home is probably more.

50% to 65% of the cost of a home is made up of fixed costs.   If this is spread over fewer square feet, obviously the cost per square foot rises. For example:  If those costs are $200,000 notice the difference in price per square foot

These two homes could be next door in the same subdivision, but yet the smaller home’s cost per square foot of living area is $9.53 higher. 

Also, if living area only is used, the cost of porches and garages is included in the per square foot cost.  The cost per square foot of this area is substantial.  As the size of garages and porches increase the amount per square foot increases even though living area is the same.  For example:  a home may have a front porch and rear porch where the home next door has only a rear porch.  In this case the cost of the front porch area in the first home will be spread over the same square footage as the home next door without a front porch. 

The cost per square foot varies according to the incremental size of the “All Other” areas.  Assuming that an additional porch in the front in the example above costs $10,000:

Again, for example, the subject home’s cost is around $3 more per square foot than the home next door without a front porch.

We are not suggesting that we should not build porches.  Today’s relaxed lifestyle lends itself to more use of the porches and other areas.  Therefore, we are suggesting that pricing a home per square foot does not always give you the true picture.  Each individual has his own way of expressing himself in his home thru the use of amenities and space. 

At Hearthstone Homes by Ron Lee and Ron Lee Homes we use a great deal of custom amenities in each home.  Therefore, there are times when our price may seem a bit higher than our competition.  We pride ourselves on creating a home that functions in every way and in every square foot.  Not just one or two splashy extras.

Some of Our Extras You Need to Compare with Other Builders:

A Watchful Eye on Construction

Higher Quality Lumber

Top-Notch Bracing

Tight Envelope – Insulation, Sealing, Mech. Equip

Secluded Bedrooms Without Wasted Space

30” Ovens

Upgraded Media Wiring

We like to ask these 3 questions in order to understand where you need to be and how we can help you create your new home:

1.  How much would you like to spend?
2.  How much could you spend if you pulled out all stops?
3.  What would you be willing to spend to get most of the amenities and finishes you want in your new home?

We encourage you to consider this information when you are ready to buy or design a new custom home in the St. Tammany Parish area.  For More Information, Contact Us Directly at 985-626-7619 or e-mail info@ronleehomes.com.

Tax Provisions:

• $8,000 first-time home buyer, true tax credit (no repayment) for the purchase of a principle residence between January 1 and December 1, 2009.  Recaptured if home is sold within three years.  Removes the restriction on the use of tax credit proceeds with Housing Finance Agency-issued tax exempt mortgage revenue bonds.  
• Short-term gap financing for Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) projects:

1. 1. Provision allowing states to turn in portion of 2009 LIHTC allocations for cash.
   2. Special appropriation of $2 billion in HOME funds.
   

• Up to a ten-year deferral of tax from business debt cancelled as part of a repurchase or restructuring.
• 5-year carryback of 2008 net operating losses for businesses with gross receipts of less than $15 million (three year average).
• Extension of enhanced bonus depreciation.
• Extension of increased small business expensing.
• Enhancements to the section 25C program for energy efficiency remodeling improvements to existing homes.
• One-year patch of the Alternative Minimum Tax.
• Increase New Markets Tax Credit allocating authority for 2008 and 2009.
• Delays for one year the start of 3% government contractor withholding requirement.

Appropriations Provisions:

• $2 billion for full year payments to owners of Section 8 project based rental assistance properties.
• $2.25 billion through HOME program and Low Income Housing Tax Credit program to fill financing gaps.
• $1 billion for CDBG.
• $2 billion for Neighborhood stabilization program.
• $1.5 billion for homelessness prevention activities (help with rents, etc).
• $250 million for energy retrofitting and green investments in HUD assisted projects.
• $1 billion for Section 502 direct loans under the Rural Housing Service. 
• $10.4 billion for Section 502 guaranteed loans under the Rural Housing Service. 
• $27.5 billion for highway spending.

Other Key Provision:

• Increases in FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limits to 2008 levels.

Terms to Know:

Amortization schedule – Your month-by-month payment schedule that shows how much of the interest is paid off vs. how much of the principal is paid off each time a payment is made is called your amortization schedule.

Loan term – How long the time period is that you have to pay back the loan. Home loan terms are 15, 20, 30, or 40 years.

Adjustment period – When and how often the interest rate on an ARM can change. Each ARM has a time period at the beginning where the interest rate stays the same (for example, 3 years). After that, the rate usually increases each year. That would be referred to as an ARM with a 3/1 adjustment period.

Lifetime cap - The maximum rate allowed and maximum number of increases.

Periodic cap – How much your loan is allowed to increase each year.

Mortgage Loan Types:

      Fixed-rate mortgage – A fixed-rate mortgage is one where the homebuyer is locked into the same interest rate for the entire duration of the loan, no matter its length. This is the most common type since having the same payment every month is the simplest method. The benefits of fixed-rate mortgages are protection against inflation, low risk, and the ability to plan long-term since the homebuyer will always know what their mortgage payment is. However, if rates drop, your interest rate will remain the same unless you refinance.

      Interest only fixed-rate mortgage – An interest-only option divides the loan into two periods. During the first period the homebuyer only pays off the interest of the loan. In the second period they pay both. The benefit of an interest-only option is that it frees up cash to do other things (for example, it would be good for a “fixer-upper” type situation where a lot of money will need to be put in to the home initially). However, these loans should not be offered to those who won’t be able to manage the second half of the loan when the payments increase to include a portion of the principal.

      Adjustable-rate mortgage – A mortgage during which the interest rate can change, decreasing or increasing the homebuyer’s loan payments. These are popular because they usually start with a low rate and low payment. Interest rate adjustments are based on the index and the margin. They are adjusted according to a published index, reflecting current financial market conditions. Like fixed-rate mortgages, there are also interest-only options available with adjustable rate mortgages.

      Balloon/reset mortgage – A mortgage with an amortization schedule based off of a 30-year loan. But at the end of either a 5 or 7 year term the homebuyer has a choice to either pay off the entire remainder of the loan, or reset the mortgage. Choosing to “reset” the mortgage means the interest rate will go up to the current market rate for the remainder of the loan term. Usually a home buyer can only exercise the reset option if: - they still own and occupy the home - the previous year’s payments have all been on time - there are no other liens against property If a homeowner does not qualify to use the reset option they do have the option of refinancing. However, if the homebuyer’s income has lowered at the end of their term, refinancing could prove difficult. This type of mortgage is different from adjustable-rate mortgages in that the rate can only increase one time. Balloon/reset mortgages are a good idea for the homeowner who plans on selling their home before the balloon payment

If you are just getting started looking for a new home in St. Tammany Parish or if you are looking for a builder to build you a custom home in Mandeville, Madisonville, or Covington, Louisiana, visit our Homes for Sale Page, Contact Us Directly, e-mail us at info@ronleehomes.com or call us at (985) 626-7619.

Click Here for the Source of Information.

      The nation’s housing industry and the economy have just about seen the worst of the painful downturn that greatly intensified since last September’s turmoil in the financial markets, according to economists speaking on April 23 at NAHB’s Construction Forecast Conference.

      And despite a continuation of rising unemployment well into next year, although at a slowing pace, housing in this year’s second half is expected to begin gradually leading the economy to higher ground, they said.

      “There’s a lot of skepticism out there. This is a very deep hole we’re in,” acknowledged NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. But he said thereare several reasons to believe that “the housing recession is nearing an end and housing will return on a very slow basis.”

      Crowe said that new single-family home sales probably reached their trough in the first quarter of this year, hitting a record low of 320,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, down from about 1.2 million at their peak.

      Sales for 2009 are projected to total 364,000, he said, 24% below the 2008 level, and then climb 48% next year to 539,000.

      The onset of a recovery in single-family housing starts should trail closely behind sales, with production hitting its cyclical low in the current business quarter at an annual rate of 330,000.

      About 360,000 single-family homes are expected to be started this year, he said, a 42% decline from 2008, which will be followed by a 45% rise to 523,000 units in 2010.

      Battered even more severely than single-family builders by the shrinking availability of acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) financing, multifamily starts are not expected to show signs of recovery until next year, bottoming out in the third or fourth quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 110,000, he said.

      According to NAHB’s forecast, multifamily production will total 130,000 units this year, which would be 55% below last year’s level, and slow 3% further in 2010, to a total of 126,000 units.

      Crowe indicated that housing markets are now struggling in all parts of the country as the result of the deepening slump in the overall economy and job losses that have escalated to above the 600,000 level in recent months.

      However, he said, prime conventional conforming home mortgage interest rates, which are now at a generational low of roughly 4.75% — along with low home prices and the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit — have greatly improved housing affordability, generating a notable increase in prospective home buyer traffic that should begin translating into a pickup in sales.

      Moving forward, the housing market should derive strength from pent-up demand and demographics, which hold the potential for strong household growth. Annual household formations are forecasted to average 1.532 million for the period of 2009 to 2013, compared to an average of 1.247 during 2004 to 2008. Providing “an extra push” will be the echo boom generation, the children of the post-World War II baby boom, the oldest of which are now in their late 20s, he said.

      Following a 6.3% decline in real growth in the gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2008, the worst since the early 1980s, deterioration in this year’s first quarter should be almost as bad, Crowe said, with a drop in GDP of about 5.2%. The current quarter should show that “some of the worst is past,” he said, with a decline in growth of perhaps something just above 1%, demonstrating that consumers are slowly coming back to life and paving the way for a return to positive territory in the following quarters.

Housing a Leading Indicator

“It’s not going to be much of a recovery at all, but some recovery is better than no recovery,” said Maury Harris, managing director and chief U.S. economist at UBS Investment Bank.

As a result of the massive fiscal stimulus package that is now making its way through the economy, a gradually waning credit crunch and the nation’s household savings rate stabilizing at a higher level, Harris said he was projecting 2% positive GDP grown in this year’s third quarter, followed by 2.5% growth in the fourth quarter and 2.2% growth in 2010.

Harris said that the unemployment rate should peak at 9.3% in the fourth quarter of this year before subsiding gradually in 2010, but “you can get a turnaround in housing before employment improvement.” Unemployment typically continues to rise for a period of time after the economy returns to growth.

“Housing is a leading indicator,” he said. “Sales turn up before unemployment peaks….You don’t have to get a big share of the population enthusiastic [about buying a home] before there is a housing upturn.”

He added that all of the major housing price indexes are overstating the decline in the value of housing. The Case Shiller House Price Index, for example, “which gets all the attention,” now has prices on average down 28% from their peak and is likely to hit bottom at the end of the year showing a 33% erosion. The index, however, is “skewed to areas with a lot of foreclosures,” he said.

Sales transaction indexes aren’t providing an accurate picture of “what’s really happening to real estate wealth,” he said, because 45% of existing home sales currently are foreclosures that are not typical of the existing housing stock.

Harris forecasted 530,000 total housing starts this year, followed by production of 720,000 units next year, but he said there was a risk that the AD&C credit crunch, particularly among smaller builders, could result in lower numbers if lending fails to sufficiently ease.

The credit crunch won’t end overnight, he said, “but it is a question of degree and starts to be ameliorated.” UBS analysis of bank lending standards, based on data from the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Office Opinion Survey, showed that the share of banks tightening standards on business and household loans started declining early this year, although tightening continued to be more pervasive than at any point in the last two recessions.

Harris added that he was in disagreement with those who forecast that further increases in household savings rates this year will prolong the recession. The savings rate climbed from roughly 0% in 2008 to under 5% now, he said, and “if it goes up to 10% to 11%, kiss the recovery goodbye this year.”

Although savings rose to that level in bad recessions 25 to 30 years ago, he said, “people already have saved more money” and savings will average 6% this year because low interest rates are not especially encouraging and, despite setbacks, Americans continue to have sizable amounts of wealth in their housing and financial holdings.

A Transition to Better Times

      “We’ve been through a tough time. It’s been exacerbated by the credit markets shutting down and turning the lights out,” said James Glassman, senior economist for JP Morgan Chase. But by this fall there will be general confidence “that we’re on the road to recovery and the tide is turning.”

      Working to stabilize the economy is the fiscal response from the federal government, which he called “appropriate” and “bold,” along with efforts by the Federal Reserve focused on promoting the flow of credit back into the credit markets.

      Glassman said there is reason to be hopeful the economy is now moving into a transitional period because “it was blanketed by storms that are now passing.”

      A doubling in oil prices between the summers of 2007 and 2008 shifted $2.5 trillion from consumers to producers, slowing down the economy of every developed country by 1% to 2%, he said. Now, although “there is nothing good going on” for consumers, it looks like consumer spending was up in the first quarter, he said, and that can be attributed to the recent collapse in oil prices, which represents a $300 billion annual benefit to consumers.

      The “debacle in the housing market” also appears to be passing, he said. Housing prices are no longer inflated and have returned to their normal levels in relation to household income. Glassman added that he was skeptical that there will be much more downward correction in housing prices.

      “The minute prices are within reach, people begin to think differently about housing,” he said. “As things become more affordable, people want to own.”

      With credit beginning to return, some pent-up consumer demand is being released, he said.

      Glassman said that current fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the economy are not inflationary at a time when joblessness is far higher than it should be and inflation is too low.

      He noted that it will take some time to reduce the existing slack in the economy, and “we need a lot of growth to claw our way back to full employment.”

     Buying a new home can be a stressful BUT WONDERFUL experience – there is so much to think about such as budgeting, location, and all of the extras to accommodate you and your family. After all, buying a new home is not something you do very often. A house not only represents where you live; it also serves a place for you and your spouse to build a family, make memories and call home. So in order to help you in the process of buying the right home, here are a few simple tips to keep in mind before making your selection.

1. Create A Budget – Before you begin looking for a home, it is a smart idea to create budget. It is important to know your income versus your monthly expenses to make sure you do not purchase a home that is out of your price range. A budget will help you to discover what sort of payment you can afford on a monthly basis and still allow you to live comfortably. Creating a budget will help you to stay stress free and will allow you to love your home instead of stressing out about making monthly payments.

2. Get Pre-Qualified – Getting pre-qualified for a mortgage is the next important step. The mortgage company you with whom you choose to do business will give you an idea of what you will be able to borrow from a bank, and will give you an idea of what price range to stay in when looking for a home. If you are unable to get pre-qualified for a certain home price, at least you won’t waste time looking in that price range when you are unable to buy.

3. Create A Wish List – Creating a wish list of you and your family’s needs will make sure you choose the right home to accommodate your family. Decide what is important in finding a home – such as a pool, yard space, bedroom size and number, and the number of bathrooms. Deciding the area in which to live is also important. For example do you want to live near schools, parks, shopping, restaurants, and etc.? A wish list will help you narrow down your home search, so you are not wasting time looking for homes that will not suit your lifestyle.

4. Hire a Realtor – With so many home choices finding one on your own may be overwhelming. Hiring a realtor can help narrow your search. A Realtor's® job is to show you homes that meet your needs and lifestyle and can eliminate you from looking at homes that are not right for you. Realtors® can also help to negotiate if you find the perfect home but the cost is a bit too high.

5. Create A Journal – While viewing homes it is smart to keep a walk-through journal about your experiences of each home you visit. Creating a journal including positive and negative points of each home helps you to weigh your options. A smart idea is to create a check list or rating list including all of the things you listed in your wish list then rating these features for each home you view. The homes with the highest scores are the ones you may want to consider viewing again before making your decision.

     Finding your home should be a fun experience – by following these tips you can experience the true joy of buying a new home in St. Tammany Parish. Finding your perfect home may be just around the corner so Happy House Hunting! If you would like more information about searching for existing homes please visit our Homes for Sale page to find homes ready to purchase from Hearthstone Homes by Ron Lee and Ron Lee Homes.  You can also call us at (985) 626-7619 or e-mail us at info@ronleehomes.com.

Buying your second home is a little different than your first home buying experience. The last thing you want is to have to pay two mortgage notes at the same time. You also don’t want to sell your current home and not a have a new home to move into. The following information is to help you achieve a smooth transition between selling your currently owned home and buying a new home.

Making minor improvements to your existing home to look more appealing to potential buyers is an easy way to help you sell your home faster. These improvements don’t have to cost a large amount of money; simple things such as new paint on the walls or new carpeting can make a big difference to potential buyers. It also helps to ensure that you get asking price for your home. Improvements may seem like an unnecessary cost now, but in the long run these improvements will pay off.

Before you even begin to look for a new home, it is very important that you get pre-qualified for a mortgage. The cost of pre-qualification free and requires no obligation to purchase. The benefit of getting pre-qualified is that you will know what homes you can afford and which ones are out of your price range.

The best way to avoid having to pay two mortgages at once is to buy your new home after your current home is sold. This will eliminate you from feeling pressured into selling your home at a below market value just to get rid of it. Be sure to add a contingency clause to your contract that will give you a reasonable amount of time to move out of your home, so you are not scrambling to find a new place to live.

If your home is not selling as fast as you would like, consider temporarily renting out your current home and then trying to sell it later. A way to avoid this dilemma is to find a Realtor® that offers a guaranteed sale, “trade-up” program. This program guarantees the sale of your present home before you take possession of a new one. In other words, if you find a new home you would like to buy and have not sold your current home, the agent will buy the home from you so that you can make the move without the burden. 

At Ron Lee Homes and Hearthstone Homes by Ron Lee, our team of experts will work with you to see how you may best make the transition from your current home to a new home or a new custom home with our company.  Our financial experts and home designers are here to make your home buying and selling experience a happy and worry-free process.  You can Contact Us Directly or Call 985-626-7619 and e-mail info@ronleehomes.com for more information.

The following are links to useful information from government agencies and NAHB that will enable you to monitor the housing market.

To access the latest information available, simply click the links.

• U.S. Census Bureau Construction Price Indexes

• NAHB's Housing Forecast

      Housing starts, sales and interest rate projections through 2009.

• Latest Home Mortgage Interest Rates

      Contains current and historical data on fixed and adjustable mortgage rates. Updated weekly.

• Characteristics of New Housing

      Highlights the latest data on new-home characteristics released by the U.S. Census Department. Includes links to the complete Census report and other trends

      researched by NAHB.

      Additional breakouts of this data and other trends researched by NAHB are available at www.nahb.org/constructionstats under "Selected Characteristics of New Housing" (dated 4/3/2008).

• Housing Starts

      Updated monthly and based on a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

• New and Existing Home Sales

      Updated monthly and based on a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

• New and Existing Single-Family Median Home Prices

      Updated monthly.

• Home Price Index

      The index measures average home appreciation in more than 250 metropolitan markets. Updated quarterly.

• Metro Home Building Permits

      Local and state data on housing construction rates. Updated monthly.

• Employment Trends for Metro/State Markets

      Provides metro and state employment data nationwide. Updated monthly.

• Local Economic Impact of Housing

      Shows how building 100 homes benefits a typical metropolitan area.

• Home Building's Direct Impact on the Economy

• Housing's Contribution to Gross State Product

      Measures how much housing contributes to the economic output of each state.

• Housing Market Statistics from HousingEconomics.com

      Full array of statistical categories available to NAHB members, a limited number available to non-members.

• In-Depth Analysis from HousingEconomics.com

      Full array of analysis of factors affecting housing and the impact on the industry available to NAHB members, a limited number available to non-members. 

Information Taken From HTA (Home Technology Alliance) Update from the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) - http://www.nahbmonday.com/hometech/issues/2009-02-18/10.html.

The following are links to useful information about home sales and financing.

• Loan Remodification

     We are experts at working with banks to successfully modify the terms of your current mortgage loan.

Economists forecast that Louisiana will show growth and stability, while most of the other states show losses during this national recession period.

The United States will experience “a relatively shallow national recession lasting about one year, “ and during that time, Louisiana will have near level job growth in 2009 and a gain of 28,400 jobs in 2010 according to the Louisiana Economic Outlook.

(Report submitted in October, 2008 by LSU Economist Loren Scott, James A. Richardson, M. Dek Terell of LSU, E. J. Ourso College of Business)

According to the report, Louisiana has avoided problems in the housing crisis because the state’s banking industry did not get into the sub-prime loans that helped stall bank-to-bank lending.  Also, housing prices have not been artificially elevated in the state, thereby creating a housing bubble that burst in states like California, Florida and Nevada.

Investing in Real Estate is Historically One of the Safest Financial Investments.

Even in down markets, over the long term home prices still appreciate more than the stock market.  Homeownership can help you build long-term wealth.  On average, the value of a home nearly doubles every 10 years.  In fact, over the past three decades, home values have increased an average of more than 6% per year.*

(*figures obtained from the National Association of Realtors)

Interest Rates are Low.  Loans and Tax Credits are Available.  Selections are Great!

Because of the cool-down in the national real estate market, interest rates have been lowered to encourage activity.  Louisiana’s banks and lenders have available cash to loan to home buyers with good credit.  At the same time, qualified, first-time buyers can receive a $7,500 federal tax credit for a limited time.

Good Selection, Tax Credit, Low Interest Rates, & Loans Available – What is Stopping YOU from Buying a New Home Today?

If you would like to build or buy a new home, now IS a great time to do it in Louisiana.  Take advantage of the financial stability of the state’s housing market in these uncertain economic times.  You can benefit from knowing the facts.